Trader Peter Tuchman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Monday, March 16, 2020. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)


Trader Peter Tuchman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Monday, March 16, 2020. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)Associated Press

Summary List Placement


Investors still have a lot to learn from the Nifty Fifty stock market bubble of 1972 and the dot-com bubble of 2000, according to Stifel’s Barry Bannister.

In a recent note to clients, the head of institutional equity strategy said the current technology-driven stock market was showing similarities to previous market bubbles and was even rivaling past melt-ups based on the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE.

“The current market level is pivotal,” Bannister said, adding: “The CAPE of the S&P 500 is knocking at the doorstep of the same point at which CAPE broke out in the last two years of the most powerful bull markets of the past century, the late 1920s and late 1990s.”

If the widely followed CAPE ratio does break above the 30-times level and move decisively higher, “the building and bursting of a bubble” could occur, according to the note.

Read more: GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 19 stocks right now for big future gains once a COVID-19 vaccine is available

“The only path we see to a sharply higher market is a bubble like the end-stage of the 1920s and the 1990s bull markets,” the note said.

Fueling a continued rally in stocks would be near-zero interest rates and a falling equity risk premium. In other words, the monetary policies from the Federal Reserve will most likely be the determining factor of how long the stock market rally can last.

According to Bannister, the S&P 500 could soar if Fed Chair Jerome Powell is able to avoid the taper tantrum of 2013 and suppress the real 10-year Treasury yield. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could jump 10% from current levels to 3,700, Stifel said.

Read more: ‘Never been so extreme’: A renowned stock bear says today’s ‘hypervalued’ market implies the worst market returns in history — and expects a 66% crash from today’s levels

Additionally, there is a “mega-bull case” for stocks, depending on how low the real 10-year Treasury yield can fall, Bannister said. The real 10-year Treasury yield is the current interest rate of the 10-year Treasury less the current rate of inflation.

Still, market valuations are “precariously high” and investors should note that the decade following the dot-com  bubble led to underperforming tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 despite faster earnings growth, the note said.

Investors should take note of Bannister’s call. The Wall Street strategist wasn’t surprised by this week’s tech-driven market sell-off given his note last month called for a 5% to 10% market pullback.

Read more: Bank of America lays out the under-the-radar indicators showing that huge swaths of the stock market are ‘running on fumes’ — and warns a September meltdown may just be getting started

stifel note 12.JPGStifel Research

Source: A Wall Street strategist who nailed last week’s sell-off says the only path to a ‘sharply higher’ stock market is a dot-com-like bubble

By mfox@businessinsider.com (Matthew Fox)

Techylawyer and its authors do not claim to have written this article, we acknowledge the works of the original author

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